As we reach the midpoint of 2024, it’s a great time to take stock of Calgary’s real estate market and look ahead. In this blog post, we’ll review the market’s performance so far this year, analyze current trends, and make some predictions for the next six months and into 2025.
Market Overview: What’s Happening Right Now?
In June 2024, Calgary saw 2,738 properties sold, a 12.8% decrease from the 3,140 sold in June 2023. This decline indicates a noticeable shift in the market, with some properties taking longer to sell and fewer multiple offers compared to earlier in the year. For instance, a property listed at $679,000 recently sold for $655,000, reflecting a trend of reduced demand.
Despite this slowdown, benchmark prices have continued to rise. In June 2024, the benchmark price reached $608,000, an 8.51% increase from last year. Year-to-date, the benchmark price is up 9.83%, with inventory levels at 3,787 listings, a slight increase from 3,469 a year ago.
Factors Influencing the Market
Several key factors are driving the current market dynamics:
Interest Rates: Rising interest rates have led many potential buyers to wait, hoping for a decrease that would make mortgages more affordable. This anticipation has contributed to slower sales and higher inventory levels. A drop in interest rates could increase buyer activity and put upward pressure on prices.
Migration to Alberta: Alberta continues to attract new residents, including many non-permanent residents. As these individuals establish themselves, they may seek to purchase real estate, further impacting demand. The economic strength of Alberta, supported by high oil prices, adds to this positive outlook.
First-Time Buyers: The market for first-time buyers remains challenging. Limited inventory in affordable price ranges, like townhouses, is causing difficulties for those looking to enter the market. However, there are still opportunities for those who can navigate the current conditions.
Looking Ahead: Predictions for the Rest of 2024
The second half of 2024 may see a continued slowdown if interest rates remain high and buyers hold off. However, if rates decrease, we could see an uptick in market activity. Additionally, the long-term economic outlook for Alberta suggests a robust housing market, driven by migration and a strong local economy.
Key Predictions:
Potential Rate Cuts: If interest rates drop by 25 to 50 basis points, it could stimulate buyer activity and pressure prices upward, especially in low inventory areas.
Continued Migration Impact: Increased demand from new residents could keep the market competitive, particularly in desirable neighbourhoods.
Price Trends: If current trends continue, the $700,000 to $800,000 range may become the new sweet spot for detached homes.
Conclusion
The Calgary real estate market is navigating a period of adjustment. While current conditions present challenges, they also offer opportunities for informed buyers and sellers. Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or just staying informed, understanding these trends can help you make better decisions.
Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need personalized advice on navigating the Calgary real estate market. I’m here to help you with your real estate journey, whatever your goals may be.